Turnout looking up for 2nd Mink vote
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By James Gonser
Advertiser Staff Writer
Nearly 21,600 people have cast absentee ballots for the special election today to replace the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink, indicating the turnout will be better than the earlier special election to fill the last five weeks of her final term.
Only 13.3 percent of eligible voters turned out in the Nov. 30 special election.
Walk-in absentee voting ended Thursday, but mail-in absentee ballots are being accepted until 6 p.m. today. The 2nd Congressional District encompasses rural O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands, and voters must choose from a field of 44 candidates in the winner-take-all election.
This election will fill the two-year term in the 108th Congress won posthumously by Mink, who died Sept. 28.
The election results will be available tomorrow afternoon, after all ballots are flown to Honolulu for counting. The winner will be sworn in with the rest of Congress on Tuesday.
Only 12,177 people — 3.5 percent — voted absentee in the Nov. 30 election won by Ed Case, now the incumbent. A total of 46,216 of 347,922 eligible voters cast ballots.
By Thursday, absentee voting by mail and walk-in totaled 7,462 on the Big Island; 5,082 on Maui; 3,351 Kaua'i; and 5,700 in Honolulu.
Democrats with the largest campaign war chests in the short campaign included state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa ($175,500), former state Sen. Matt Matsunaga ($136,000) and Case ($118,500). Among Republicans, former state Reps. Bob McDermott ($86,000) and Barbara Marumoto ($51,000) and Kimo Kaloi ($24,000) had the most money.
Four other current and former state Republican lawmakers are running: Big Island state Rep. Chris Halford and former state lawmakers Whitney Anderson, John Carroll and Jim Rath.
Current lawmakers Halford, Hanabusa and Marumoto are running from "safe" seats, meaning they do not have to resign from the Legislature to run for Congress and will keep their positions if they lose.
Other notables in the field include former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi and former City Councilman Kekoa Kaapu.
It is the fourth time voters have been asked to pick a candidate for the seat, beginning with the primary election Sept. 21. Mink won in the general election and Case won in the special election for the five-week term.
Despite get-out-the-vote efforts by both major parties and several unions, no one is predicting a big turnout today.
"A good turnout, by a democratic participation standard, would be over 50 percent," said University of Hawai'i political science professor Neal Milner. "I think this time I expect less than 30 percent. I imagine it will be higher than the last special election."
With so many candidates running, neither Republicans nor Democrats are endorsing anyone, but party officials have been working phone banks and sending notices reminding members to vote. A small margin could take the election, Milner said.
"Relative to other elections, the Republicans have a statistical advantage here," he said. "You have three serious visible Democratic candidates running against each other. You do the math, and in a plurality election a Republican has a better chance than a two-person election between parties."
To hold down costs (both special elections will cost an estimated $1.5 million), the state Office of Elections will use only 91 of the district's 192 voting sites.
